BLUEMOMENT

This summer a so called "super El Niño" has been developing in the South Pacific. An El Niño forms when the warm water in the west Pacific, that has been pushed from east to west by prevailing winds, rushes back towards South America. It messes up the heat distribution and impacts the jet stream and ocean currents. Apparently towards late Autumn, early winter and for most of next year, the conditions will be more intense that other El Niños, hence the super term.

For the west of Scotland a distillation from various sources thanks to Google AI.

For the west coast of Scotland, it typically increases the likelihood of a milder, wetter, and windier start to winter driven by an amplified Atlantic jet stream, potentially followed by a colder, calmer late winter.
Direct Weather Influences
Increased Rainfall: Strong low-pressure systems from the Atlantic hit western high spots and hills, creating heavier and more frequent rain and higher localized flood risks.
Milder and Stormier Autumn/Early Winter: Southerly and westerly winds push warm, moist air across the coast, meaning fewer crisp, freezing days and more gray, damp weather.
Potential Late-Winter Cold Snaps: Historical patterns show strong El Niño events can transition into colder, calmer spells in late winter as atmospheric blocking patterns set in.

Perhaps be more prudent if leaving your boat afloat by doubling up lines and preventing chafe. If ashore, remove the extra windage. My insurance allows my mast to remain up but not with sails or cockpit cover up. Excessive rain with wind may mean fresh water getting in through hatches in the vent position. It could be a damp start to winter prohibiting any opportunity for early winter paint, varnish work. It could be a more mouldy conditions as well, so get the sails dried away from the boat and remove anything likely to hold damp, if possible.

A couple of years ago we had some strong winds in the marina and a lot. of boats were moving significantly on slack lines with some breaking. There was a lot of fenders jumping out and stuff blowing

many fenders will be visible on the side of m boat this winter!
I still prefer to winter in the water if possible

<smug mode>
Fairwinds is wintering in Bodø in Arctic Norway this year, where the impact of the El Niño is likely to be relatively insignificant.
</smug mode>

Doesn't it snow up there?

Yes, but I have a man who will shovel it for me.

But there's been no named hurricanes in the Atlantic so far this season. Which is apparently a record. And seems at odds with expectations of a warm, wet, windy autumn?

Burst Boiler wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2026 6:48 pm But there's been no named hurricanes in the Atlantic so far this season. Which is apparently a record. And seems at odds with expectations of a warm, wet, windy autumn?

You may be right as other climate scientists have stated that statistically these conditions have only been measured a few times, some worse and no extreme weather. I can't find the video now on YouTube but it was interesting.

El Niño is associated with fewer Atlantic hurricanes as it creates more upper level wind shear across the southern Atlantic and Caribbean area which reduces the probability of conditions existing to cause hurricanes, it is a usual outcome of El Niño.

I guess, as always, we shall see.